1. Full name of doctoral candidate: NGUYEN MINH HONG 2. Gender: Female
3. Date of birth: April 2, 1995 4. Place of birth: Hanoi
5. Decision on admission of doctoral students: Decision No. 2949/2021/QD-XHNV-DT, dated December 28, 2021, of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi.
6. Changes in the training process: Decision No. 5672/QD-XHNV dated December 29, 2023, of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities on adjusting the training time for doctoral programs. The dissertation completion period is extended from June 28, 2026, to June 28, 2027.
7. Thesis title: China's foreign policy strategy in Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present.
8. Major: Political Science 9. Code: 9310201.01
10. Scientific supervisors: Prof. Dr. Nguyen Van Kim and Dr. Nguyen Xuan Cuong
11. Summary of the new findings of the thesis:
Research Objective: This thesis aims to clarify China's foreign policy strategy towards Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present by analyzing its theoretical basis, formation context, objectives, content, and implementation methods in relation to the shifting international power structure and China's need to expand its sphere of influence. Based on this analysis, the thesis examines the asymmetrical impacts and consequences of this strategy on Southeast Asia, while also clarifying the adjustments in policies by countries in the region, thereby drawing some implications for Vietnam.
Research subject: China's foreign policy strategy towards Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present.
Research methods used: The thesis is developed on the methodology of Marxism-Leninism, Ho Chi Minh Thought, and the foreign policy of the Communist Party of Vietnam; simultaneously applying dialectical materialism, historical materialism, the principle of comprehensiveness, and historical-specificity to analyze China's foreign policy strategy in relation to economic-political conditions and the international power structure. In terms of theoretical basis, the thesis adopts a multi-theoretical approach, in which realism, especially offensive realism, and the theory of power asymmetry are used as the main analytical axes; a three-level framework is applied to explain the interaction between the international system, national interests, and strategic planning mechanisms. The thesis also uses analytical-synthetic, logical-historical, comparative, and systematization methods to clarify the process of formation, implementation, and adjustment of China's foreign policy strategy towards Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present.
Key results
- Firstly, the thesis contributes to building a theoretical framework and an analytical framework for China's foreign policy from the perspective of international political science, based on clarifying related concepts and applying a three-level analytical framework—realism, offensive realism, and the theory of power asymmetry—to explain the formation, objectives, and logic of strategic implementation.
Secondly, the thesis clarifies China's foreign policy strategy in Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present as a comprehensive whole, in which economic-trade, security-political, diplomatic, and socio-cultural tools are coordinated to expand influence, create interdependent interests, legitimize its presence, and gradually shape the regional environment.
- Thirdly, the thesis points out the asymmetrical impacts and consequences of this strategy on Southeast Asia, as evidenced by the differentiation among countries in terms of benefits, dependencies, strategic risks, and autonomy; and clarifies the impact of this process on intra-bloc cohesion and the central role of ASEAN.
Fourth, the thesis analyzes the reactions and countermeasures of Southeast Asian countries to China's foreign policy strategy, thereby clarifying the issues facing the region, ASEAN, and Vietnam in maintaining strategic autonomy, leveraging cooperation, controlling dependence, and adapting to increasingly complex power competition.
Novel Contribution of the Thesis: This thesis contributes to clarifying the meaning of the concept of foreign policy strategy from a political science perspective and constructing an analytical framework for China's foreign policy strategy toward Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present. The novelty of the thesis lies in approaching this strategy as a relatively systematic whole, rather than analyzing only individual policies, tools, or issues such as the BRI, the South China Sea, the Mekong, or soft power. Based on this, the thesis clarifies the objectives, methods, and logic of China's strategy implementation in the economic-trade, security-political, diplomatic, and cultural-social fields; and points out the asymmetrical impacts and consequences for Southeast Asia, ASEAN, regional groups, and the challenges facing Vietnam.
Conclusion: The shifting regional and international power structure has facilitated significant adjustments in China's foreign policy strategy since 2012, particularly in its approach to Southeast Asia – a space of special strategic importance. This thesis contributes to clarifying the logic, objectives, and implementation methods of China's foreign policy strategy in this region. Foreign policy activities are implemented in a multi-sectoral manner, combining economic interests, security and political requirements, and social factors to gradually shape the regional environment in a way that benefits China. This movement leads to uneven changes among countries in the region, simultaneously opening opportunities for cooperation while increasing pressure to adjust policies and narrowing the scope of autonomy in some cases. Simultaneously, the gap between cooperative messages and their practical implementation becomes a direct factor impacting the perceptions and behaviors of actors in the region, thereby affecting the level of cohesion and the coordinating role of ASEAN. This necessitates flexible adaptation, maintaining a balance of interests, and ensuring strategic space, which remains a persistent challenge for Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam. The research findings of this thesis not only supplement the theoretical basis for political science studies but also have practical significance for the formulation of foreign policy, security, and development policies of Southeast Asian countries in the context of a region undergoing profound changes.
12. Directions for further research:
- China's foreign policy strategy toward individual Southeast Asian countries or toward groups of countries within specific sub-regions, such as the Mekong Subregion, island Southeast Asia, and mainland Southeast Asia.
- The impact of China's foreign policy strategy on ASEAN and on individual groups of member states.
13. Publications related to the dissertation:
1. Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), Upgrading the “ASEAN-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”: Prospects and Challenges for Southeast Asian Countries, Proceedings of the National Conference on Research and New Findings in Vietnamese and World Politics and Economics, ISBN: 978-604-343-773-7, Labor Publishing House, pp. 160-167.
2.Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), “Enhancing Mekong Flow Management: Examining the Present Scenario and Challenges Faced by Mainland Southeast Asian Nations”, 17th International Conference on Socio-economic and Environmental Issues in Development 2023, ISBN: 978-604-79-3740-0, Finance Publishing House, pp.372-385.
3.Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), “Enhancing and Augmentation of Soft Power via Cultural Value Education: Theories, International Encounters from East Asian Regional Powers, and Insights for Vietnam in the Information Age”, International Conference on Culture and Education – ICCE 2023 Educating cultural value in the context of international integration, ISBN: 978-604-489-328-0, Hue University Press, pp.316-330
4.Nguyen Minh Hong (2024), “Prospects and Challenges for Southeast Asian Countries in Collaborating with China under the Belt and Road Initiative in the Post-COVID-19 Context”, International Conference on Sustainable Economic Development and Business Management in the Context of Globalization SEDBM-7, ISBN: 978-604-79-4553-5, Finance Publishing House, pp.744-759.
5.Nguyen Minh Hong (2024), “Strengthening ASEAN's Conflict Management Mechanisms for Cultural-Civilizational, Ethnic, Religious, and Political-Security Conflicts in Southeast Asia”, International Conference on Culture and Education – ICCE 2024, ISBN: 978-604-44-3471-1, Hanoi Publishing House, pp.288-302.
6.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Enhancing Public Diplomacy during the Digital Transformation: Theoretical Frameworks, Global Best Practices, and Relevance for Vietnamese Youth in Safeguarding National Sovereignty over Seas and Islands”, Problems of Modern science and Education (4/203), pp.56-66, ISSN 2304–2338 (Print), ISSN 2413–4635 (Online), DOI 10.24411/2304-2338-2025-10409.
7. Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Applying Ho Chi Minh Thought on protecting Vietnam's maritime sovereignty against the strategies of some East Asian regional powers”, Journal of Theoretical Education (387/2025), ISSN: 0868-3492, pp. 53-56.
8.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Constructing Soft Power in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: Insights from China's Cultural–Educational Strategy in Southeast Asia” International Conference on The Second Autumn Forum on Culture & Education “Culture and Creative Education Development in the Digital Era”. ISBN: 978-632-607-440-6, Social Sciences Publishing House, pp.648-661.
9.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “China's “Education Belt and Road Initiative” and its implications for cultural–educational cooperation in Southeast Asia in the era of digital globalization”, International Conference on Culture and Education - ICCE 2025, ISBN: 978-632-627-386-1, Hue University Press, pp.1068-1088.
INFORMATION ON DOCTORAL THESIS
Research purpose: The thesis aims to clarify China's foreign strategy toward Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present by analyzing its theoretical foundations, formative context, objectives, contents, and modes of implementation in relation to shifts in the international power structure and China's need to expand its sphere of influence. On that basis, the thesis analyzes the asymmetric impacts and consequences of this strategy on Southeast Asia, while also clarifying the adjustments in the responses of countries in the region, thereby drawing several implications for Vietnam.
Research object: China's foreign strategy toward Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present.
Research methods used: The thesis is conducted on the basis of the methodology of Marxism–Leninism, Ho Chi Minh Thought, and the foreign policy line of the Communist Party of Vietnam. It also applies materialism, historical material dialectism, the comprehensive principle, and the historical-specific principle to analyze China's foreign strategy in relation to economic-political conditions and the international power structure. In terms of theoretical foundations, the thesis adopts a multi-theoretical approach, in which realism, particularly offensive realism, and the theory of power asymmetry are used as the principal analytical axes. The three-level analytical framework is employed to explain the interaction among the international system, national interests, and the mechanism of strategic planning. The thesis also uses methods of analysis and synthesis, logical and historical analysis, comparison, and systematization to clarify the formation, implementation, and adjustment of China's foreign strategy toward Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present.
Main minutes:
First, the thesis contributes to the development of a theoretical framework and an analytical framework for studying China's foreign strategy from the perspective of international political science. This is done by clarifying relevant concepts and applying the three-level analytical framework, realism, offensive realism, and the theory of power asymmetry to explain the formation, objectives, and implementation logic of the strategy.
Second, the thesis clarifies China's foreign strategy in Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present as a relatively comprehensive whole, in which economic-trade, security-political, diplomatic, and cultural-social instruments are coordinated to expand influence, create interest-based linkages, legitimize China's presence, and gradually shape the regional environment.
Third, the thesis points out the asymmetric impacts and consequences of this strategy on Southeast Asia, as reflected in the differentiation among countries in terms of benefits, dependence, strategic risks, and room for autonomy. It also clarifies the impact of this process on intra-bloc cohesion and ASEAN centrality.
Fourth, the dissertation analyzes the responses and countermeasures of Southeast Asian countries to China's foreign strategy, thereby clarifying the issues raised to the region, ASEAN, and Vietnam in maintaining strategic autonomy, making use of cooperation, controlling dependence, and adapting to increasingly complex power competition.
New contributions of the thesis: The thesis contributes to clarifying the connotation of the concept of foreign strategy from the perspective of Political Science and to developing an analytical framework for China's foreign strategy toward Southeast Asia from 2012 to the present. The novelty of the thesis lies in its approach to this strategy as a relatively systematic whole, rather than merely analyzing separate policies, instruments, or issues such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the South China Sea, the Mekong, or soft power. On that basis, the thesis clarifies the objectives, methods, and implementation logic of China's across the fields of economy-trade, security-politics, strategy, and culture-society. It also identifies the asymmetric impacts and consequences for Southeast Asia, ASEAN, groups of countries in the region, and the issues raised to Vietnam.
Conclusion: The shifting regional and international power structure has created conditions for China's foreign strategy after 2012 to undergo significant adjustments in its approach to Southeast Asia — a space of special importance in China's strategic calculations. The thesis contributes to clarifying the logic, objectives, and modes of implementation of China's foreign strategy in this region. China's foreign activities are implemented in a manner that links multiple fields, combining economic interests, security-political requirements, and social factors in order to gradually shape the regional environment in a direction favorable to China. This process has generated uneven changes among countries in the region, both opening up opportunities for cooperation and increasing pressure for policy adjustment, while narrowing the room for autonomy in certain cases. At the same time, the gap between cooperative messages and practical implementation has become a factor that directly affects the perceptions and behavior of regional actors, thereby influencing ASEAN's cohesion and coordinating role. This poses the continuing requirement for Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, to adapt flexibly, maintain a balance of interests, and preserve their strategic space. The thesis's research findings not only supplement theoretical arguments for the study of political science but also carry practical significance for the formulation of foreign, security, and development policies of Southeast Asian countries in the context of continued profound regional transformations.
- China's foreign strategy toward individual Southeast Asian countries or toward groups of countries in specific subregions, such as the Mekong Subregion, maritime Southeast Asia, and mainland Southeast Asia.
- The impacts of China's foreign strategy on ASEAN as a bloc and on different groups of member states.
Thesis-related publications
1.Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), “Upgrading the ASEAN–China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Prospects and Challenges for Southeast Asian Countries”, Proceedings of the National Conference on Research and New Findings in Vietnamese and World Politics and Economy, ISBN: 978-604-343-773-7, Labor Publishing House, pp. 160–167.
2.Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), “Enhancing Mekong Flow Management: Examining the Present Scenario and Challenges Faced by Mainland Southeast Asian Nations”, 17th International Conference on Socio-economic and Environmental Issues in Development 2023, ISBN: 978-604-79-3740-0, Finance Publishing House, pp. 372–385.
3.Nguyen Minh Hong (2023), “Enhancing and Augmentation of Soft Power via Cultural Value Education: Theories, International Encounters from East Asian Regional Powers, and Insights for Vietnam in the Information Age”, International Conference on Culture and Education – ICCE 2023: Educating Cultural Value in the Context of International Integration, ISBN: 978-604-489-328-0, Hue University Press, pp. 316–330.
4.Nguyen Minh Hong (2024), “Prospects and Challenges for Southeast Asian Countries in Collaborating with China under the Belt and Road Initiative in the Post-COVID-19 Context”, International Conference on Sustainable Economic Development and Business Management in the Context of Globalization SEDBM-7, ISBN: 978-604-79-4553-5, Finance Publishing House, pp. 744–759.
5.Nguyen Minh Hong (2024), “Strengthening ASEAN's Conflict Management Mechanisms for Cultural-Civilizational, Ethnic, Religious, and Political-Security Conflicts in Southeast Asia”, International Conference on Culture and Education – ICCE 2024, ISBN: 978-604-44-3471-1, Hanoi Publishing House, pp. 288–302.
6.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Enhancing Public Diplomacy during the Digital Transformation: Theoretical Frameworks, Global Best Practices, and Relevance for Vietnamese Youth in Safeguarding National Sovereignty over Seas and Islands”, Problems of Modern Science and Education, (4/203), pp. 56–66, ISSN 2304–2338 (Print), ISSN 2413–4635 (Online), DOI: 10.24411/2304-2338-2025-10409.
7.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Applying Ho Chi Minh Thought on Protecting Vietnam's Sovereignty over Seas and Islands in Response to the Strategies of Several Regional Powers in East Asia,” Journal of Theoretical Education, (387/2025), ISSN: 0868-3492, pp. 53–56.
8.Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “Constructing Soft Power in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: Insights from China's Cultural–Educational Strategy in Southeast Asia”, International Conference on The Second Autumn Forum on Culture & Education, ISBN: 978-632-607-440-6, Social Sciences Publishing House, pp.648-661.
9. Nguyen Minh Hong (2025), “China's “Education Belt and Road Initiative” and its implications for cultural–educational cooperation in Southeast Asia in the era of digital globalization”, International Conference on Culture and Education - ICCE 2025,ISBN: 978-632-627-386-1, Hue University Press, pp.1068-1088.
Author:Department of Training and Non-profit Organization
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