World 2014: Wins and Losses

Never before has the world faced so many major challenges, from the bloody war in Syria to the intractable conflict in Ukraine, from the outbreak of the Ebola pandemic to air accidents, from the tension over sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas to the pro-democracy protest movement in Hong Kong. In such a complex context, it is impossible not to mention the strategies and responsibilities of major countries.

US - Russia: War in the post-Soviet space

Twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, US-Russia relations have for the first time almost returned to the tense state of the bipolar order, mainly due to the conflict in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic. Once again, the conflict in Europe has dragged the US into a difficult situation. Ukraine seems to be the last "stopper" in the EU and NATO expansion strategy to the East and the only "buffer zone" between Russia and the EU. Therefore, both sides want Ukraine to lean towards their side.

In the Ukraine crisis that began in late 2013, the US seems to have gained more than it lost. First, the US has succeeded in pulling Ukraine out of Russia's "orbit", the two countries are no longer "brothers" and Ukraine is getting closer to the US and the West. Second, the US-European alliance has been strengthened, NATO's strength has been enhanced, when all members agreed to increase their defense budget to 2% of GDP. NATO also agreed to establish a rapid response force, deployed in Eastern European member countries. Through the Ukraine crisis, the US has also succeeded in mobilizing European forces and finances, restraining Russia, spending less resources, gaining advantages in negotiating the "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" (TTIP) and initially succeeding in the "energy weapon" card.

In the Ukraine crisis in general, and the Russia-US relationship in particular, Russia seems to be "losing more than gaining". The only thing Russia has gained is to take back Crimea from Ukraine without much cost. But the challenge Russia is facing is not small. Politically, Russia's actions have caused dissatisfaction and concern among most Eastern European countries. The trust between Russia and Europe that took 25 years to build has disappeared, and the Ukraine crisis has also caused Eastern European countries to distance themselves from Russia and unite around the US and the EU.

Economically, US and EU sanctions are making Russia's already difficult situation even more difficult. The ruble has depreciated sharply, and economic growth has fallen below 1%.

Strategically, what Russia has long pursued, which is to establish a unified Eurasian Union, limit US intervention, and expand its influence in the post-Soviet space, seems to have failed. As a result, Russia has had to adjust its strategy towards Asia.

Russia - China: New model of great power relations

Although not located in Europe, developments in the "old continent" have a strong influence on Russia-China relations. The catalyst for the warm Russia-China relations is also the Ukraine crisis. In fact, the Ukraine crisis has accelerated Russia's turn to the East. There are many similarities between the two countries, such as both are in the process of transformation, searching for a suitable development path, and have similar philosophies and methods of governing the country. President Putin's visit to Beijing to attend the 22nd APEC Summit and meet with President Xi Jinping is the fifth meeting between the two leaders in 2014. According to President Xi Jinping, these summit meetings "foster friendship and cooperation between China and Russia" and are bringing positive results, while President Putin considers them "new momentum" for the development of bilateral relations.

Russia - EU: The Cold War seems to be back

2014 was the most turbulent year in EU-Russia relations. Once again, the trigger for war began in Europe, which had been the site of two World Wars and religious wars throughout history.

Unlike the US and Russia, 2014 was a year in which the EU achieved only half of its goals. As the subject of the Ukraine dispute with Russia, the EU finally managed to win Ukraine over to its side, but at a very high price. Economically, unlike the US, the EU-Russia economic relationship is very close and Russia is the EU's third largest trading partner. In addition, the EU is heavily dependent on Russian energy sources, as Russia supplies up to 30% of the EU's gas needs. For these reasons, the EU's sanctions against Russia are in fact self-punishment. In the first six months of 2014, trade turnover between the EU and Russia decreased by 1.31 billion Euros and Russian exports to the EU decreased by 12%. In terms of security, although there has been no direct conflict between the EU and Russia, tensions are hovering over Eastern Europe. Faced with the risk of conflict breaking out, Eastern European NATO member countries have agreed to establish a rapid reaction force to deal with possible unforeseen situations.

China - Japan: Conflict named Diaoyu/Senkaku

While Europe is preoccupied with the Ukraine crisis, East Asia is dominated by the sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands between Japan and China. Relations between the two countries suddenly became tense in 2012, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s predecessor, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), decided to nationalize the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in order to prevent ultra-nationalist Shintaro Ishihara, who later became Tokyo’s governor, from buying the islands. However, this decision led to ever more tension between Japan and China.

In response, in November 2013, China decided to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. This action showed that China firmly demanded that Japan and the international community recognize the archipelago as China's sovereign territory. Afterwards, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reinterpreted Article 9 of Japan's pacifist Constitution, allowing the country to exercise the right to collective self-defense by sending military forces to countries with close relations to protect its interests when they are violated, established a National Security Council, increased defense spending, and published a white paper criticizing the Chinese threat.

After two years without any contact, in November 2014, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Xi Jinping had their first 30-minute meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Beijing. However, their cold handshake showed that the two countries still had no common voice on this issue.

The fight against IS: No “light at the end of the tunnel” yet

The US war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) is falling into a quagmire with no way out. On September 10, 2014, President Obama announced that the US will coordinate with friends and allies to weaken and ultimately destroy the terrorist organization IS.

So far, the "IS monster" is the most well-funded and successful terrorist organization in history, controlling more than 90,000 square kilometers of Iraqi territory with over 8 million people, with many large cities, earning an average of over 1 million USD per day from oil trade. The difference is that this huge terrorist army ranging from 10,000 - 80,000 jihadists comes from more than 80 different countries including the US, UK, France, Belgium, Maldives, Chile, Norway... and has close relations with powerful forces in Iraq and the region such as tribes, former Baath party officers, and disgruntled Sunni elements.

Experts say that IS is now a more dangerous threat to US national security than al-Qaeda has been since 9/11. The biggest problem for the US is that they do not have a clear and transparent strategy. By giving itself the right to attack IS in Syria "at a time and place" of its own choosing, the Obama administration has lost its credibility in the eyes of the international community. There has been a deep division among countries about the US's anti-IS strategy because they do not really understand which is the real target of the US: Syria or IS. Iran, Russia, Syria have strongly opposed and are concerned about the real motives behind this strategy. The US can wear down IS forces with drones and cruise missiles, even neutralize IS activities for a while. But to completely destroy IS, the US must cooperate with the Syrian government. This is the key point of the US when US officials explain that "fighting the common enemy IS cannot make the Syrian government an ally of the US".

The year 2014 ended with many dark colors. The world situation has never been as complicated and volatile as this year. Fortunately, on the threshold of the new year 2015, the world witnessed an event that has been awaited for more than half a century: the US and Cuba officially announced the normalization of relations between the two countries. Hopefully, with such good news, 2015 will be a brighter year for politics and international relations.