GS.TS Phạm Quang Minh - Hiệu trưởng Trường Đại học Khoa học Xã hội và Nhân văn
Cuộc chiến giữa 2 hệ thống
Nhà báo Phan Đăng: Thưa giáo sư, một trong những mối quan hệ quốc tế nóng bỏng nhất mà chúng ta thấy trong suốt thời gian dịch bệnh vừa qua chính là mối quan hệ giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc. Trước cuộc điện đàm của Tổng thống Mỹ Donal Trump với nhà lãnh đạo Trung Quốc Tập Cận Bình ngày 27-3 vừa rồi, giữa hai bên quả thực đã diễn ra một cuộc khẩu chiến với nhiều biểu hiện vượt quá ngôn ngữ ngoại giao thông thường. Khi đó, một người phát ngôn của Bộ ngoại giao Trung Quốc viết trên Mạng xã hội rằng ông ta nghi ngờ quân đội Mỹ đã thả Virus Corona xuống Vũ Hán, ngay lập tức phía Mỹ phản đối quyết liệt, và ông Donal Trump nhiều lần gọi Virus này là “Virus Trung Quốc”. Cá nhân ông đánh giá gì về cuộc khẩu chiến này?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: Đại dịch covid 19 xảy ra trong bối cảnh quan hệ Mỹ-Trung đã có dấu hiệu giảm nhiệt từ cuối năm 2019. Tuy nhiên, hai bên vẫn chưa đạt được một thỏa thuận thương mại để hàn gắn lại vết rạn nứt trong quan hệ song phương. Vì thế, cả hai bên đang âm thầm chuẩn bị cho một cuộc tái vũ trang và một cuộc xung đột tiềm năng trong tương lai ở châu Á-Thái Bình Dương. Các nhà nghiên cứu đều chú ý tới tuyên bố của Chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình về chính sách chính thức xây dựng “quân đội tầm cỡ thế giới” của Trung Quốc tại Đại hội XIX Đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc, theo đó quân đội Trung Quốc có “sức răn đe sánh ngang với quân đội các cường quốc thế giới”, có được ưu thế thông tin, chú trọng sức mạnh hải quân và không quân và thúc đẩy “năng lực răn đe hạt nhân tối thiểu”. Ngân sách quốc phòng năm 2019 của Trung Quốc đã đạt mức 177,61 tỷ đô la, nhiều hơn của cả Ấn Độ, Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc cộng lại.
Cứ theo đà này, quan hệ Mỹ-Trung có thể sẽ bị đẩy vào giai đoạn thách thức hơn, không chỉ có ý nghĩa quan trọng đối với bản thân hai nước trong cuộc chiến chống đại dịch Covid-19, mà cả với thế giới sau đại dịch. Một Trung Quốc đang hồi sinh nhanh chóng từ đại dịch đã báo hiệu một nguy cơ mới trong các sắp đặt quốc tế trong tương lai.
GS. Phạm Quang Minh tại một sự kiện của DAAD
Journalist Phan Dang:Thủ tướng Singapore Lý Hiển Long nói rằng nếu Mỹ và Trung Quốc không ngừng đổ lỗi cho nhau thì thế giới nói chung sẽ không thể sớm giải quyết được câu chuyện dịch bệnh gây nguy nan toàn cầu hiện nay. Trong góc nhìn của ông thì một sự hợp tác thực chất giữa hai cường quốc này, ít nhất là vào lúc thế giới nguy nan này sẽ có ý nghĩa như thế nào?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: Trước hết, cả Mỹ và Trung Quốc phải nhận thức đại dịch Covid -19 là một cuộc chiến tranh thế giới chống lại một kẻ thù vô hình nghiêm trọng nhất, chưa từng có đối với nhân loại. Với tư cách là hai nền kinh tế hàng đầu thế giới, Mỹ và Trung Quốc phải có trách nhiệm hợp tác với nhau để giúp thế giới vượt qua thế chiến này. Sự mâu thuẫn đối đầu giữa họ là một sự thất bại của chính trị thế giới, gây nguy hại cho việc tập hợp lực lượng trong cuộc chiến toàn cầu. Cộng đồng thế giới hy vọng và trông đợi vào cách thức ứng xử của hai “người không lồ”, vào sự hợp tác chứ không phải đối đầu.
Sự hợp tác giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc cần được xem xét từ góc độ văn hóa lãnh đạo. Những gì đang bị đe dọa bây giờ là vị thế lãnh đạo toàn cầu. Hai chuyên gia về châu Á của Mỹ là Kurt M. Campbell, nguyên trợ lý bộ trưởng ngoại giao về các vấn đề Đông Á và Thái Bình Dương dưới thời Obama và Rush Doshi đã rất có lý khi cho rằng: "Vị thế của Hoa Kỳ như một nhà lãnh đạo toàn cầu trong bảy thập kỷ qua đã được xây dựng không chỉ dựa trên sự giàu có và quyền lực mà còn quan trọng, về tính hợp pháp trong quản trị đất nước, cung cấp hàng hóa cho toàn cầu, khả năng và tính sẵn sàng để điều phối và phối hợp một phản ứng toàn cầu đối với khủng hoảng”.
While Washington remains indifferent, subjective, and disregards the pandemic and still declares "America first", China has been quietly responding, secretly preparing and effectively arranging huge resources to be ready to replace the US, fill the "power vacuum", and demonstrate itself as a global leader in responding to the pandemic.
Journalist Phan Dang:For these reasons, is genuine cooperation between the US and China an impossibility?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh:Press reports tell us that just after “blaming” the US for bringing the coronavirus to Wuhan, Beijing is calling on Washington to “unite” to deal with the pandemic. On March 26, 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised US President Donald Trump that China was “willing to share information and experience with the United States.” However, experts say there will be no real cooperation between the two powers.
I want to emphasize this: between the two sides is not just a battle of “leadership” between two individuals representing two viewpoints, but is really a battle of image between two systems: one is the American model of “liberal democracy” and the other is the Chinese model of “authoritarian democracy”. While China is trying to export its model of handling the epidemic crisis, which was praised by the People’s Daily on March 10 as “reflecting the significant benefits of the Chinese model of socialism”, the United States and Western countries are cautious because it affects some of the people’s freedoms. While China has the motive to “undermine and replace US dominance in world affairs” through so-called “mask diplomacy,” the United States has turned its back on its allies, closed its borders to EU countries, and even wanted to “trade” on Germany’s suffering when President Trump on March 16 offered to pay the CureVac company about $1 billion for exclusive rights to the Covid-19 vaccine.
Journalist Phan Dang:Listening to his analysis, I even shuddered thinking about the US-Soviet confrontation during the Cold War!
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: (Nod…).Many researchers also believe that the Covid-19 pandemic could push the US and China into a new Cold War. Unlike the Cold War in the 20th century between the US and the Soviet Union, the scale of this war is much larger.
Journalist Phan Dang:Could you please elaborate?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh:The US and the Soviet Union used to be ideological rivals, but now the US and China are both dependent and competitive in all areas from politics, economics, to technology. If in the old Cold War, the two countries mainly demonstrated their superiority by destroying each other through proxy wars, then in this new Cold War, victory will belong to which country finds the first vaccine and which country will escape the financial crisis first.
Professor Pham Quang Minh at an international conference on archival documents at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities
America's “Suez Moment”?
Journalist Phan Dang:President Donald Trump has always promoted the slogan “America First”. It is from this slogan and this viewpoint that the US under Donald Trump has withdrawn or threatened to withdraw from a series of international treaties that the US considers unfavorable to its interests, most notably the Global Climate Change Agreement. The way Mr. Trump puts “America First” and always does everything to assert America’s hard power has reduced America’s inherent soft power, not only in comparison with China, but also on a global scale?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: Absolutely! According to some American experts, the Covid-19 pandemic could be a decisive opportunity for the United States in the world political chessboard, when they compare the current state of the United States with the defeat of Britain in 1956 in the so-called “Suez Canal” dossier. In an article written for the US State Department, these experts argue that the British plan to seize the Suez Canal in 1956 “weakened British power and marked the end of the reign of the United Kingdom as a global power”. Similarly, they argue that if the United States does not rise up to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic, meeting the demands of the United States and the world, the Covid-19 pandemic could mark another “Suez moment”.
Journalist Phan Dang:Donald Trump’s predecessors have always focused on soft power – a concept coined by Professor Joseph Nye (USA). The clearest example is in 2003, when President Bush signed a $90 billion aid package to help African countries fight the AIDS pandemic. But things are no longer like that under Trump. It was only after receiving much criticism from within the country and international calls that the US launched a grant of several hundred million dollars to countries in Europe and Asia. What do you think about this action?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh:A decision too late! People feel that America under President Donald Trump is no longer a model for the world because of the tendency to withdraw into itself and put its own interests first. This trend tends to increase due to three factors: First, America is relatively independent in energy issues thanks to its abundant oil resources and the ability to exploit shale gas, helping to reduce dependence on foreign supplies. Second, its isolated geographical location, surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west, and with only two neighbors, Canada to the north and Mexico to the south, makes it easy to defend itself against waves of attacks or invasions from abroad. Third, America has a fairly strong population growth rate among developed countries, can solve its own problems, can rely on the domestic market, and is less dependent on the outside. However, this contraction is not beneficial to the United States, does not help the United States take the lead in many fields, reduces friction and competition, and shows signs of "falling behind" compared to advanced countries. The influence of the United States is therefore increasingly narrowing.
Prof. Pham Quang Minh and American and Vietnamese scientists at the Global HoChiMinh conference in New York in 2019
Journalist Phan Dang:While the US is gradually losing its “soft power”, according to some international commentators, with its “mask diplomacy” strategy, China seems to be improving its image. Specifically, China is providing masks to many countries in a context where masks have become more valuable than ever. In your opinion, with such “mask diplomacy”, will China’s position be raised?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: China was once known for its “ping-pong diplomacy” event on April 10, 1971, when it invited a delegation of American table tennis players to China after attending the Nagoya Olympics (Japan), which paved the way for the historic visit of US President Nixon in February 1972, “thawing” US-China relations during the Cold War, bringing China onto the international political stage as a major power. However, this time, “mask diplomacy” has not done what “ping-pong diplomacy” did. With “mask diplomacy”, China is hoping to convey the message that, unlike the US, China is a responsible and trustworthy partner in the context of the covid-19 pandemic that is ravaging the world. However, some European countries have rejected Chinese-made anti-coronavirus medical equipment. This could also ruin the country's "philanthropic politics".
Missing the "big brother"
Journalist Phan Dang:Many politicians, including Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, say they regret that the US is no longer able to demonstrate its role as a generous “big brother” when the world faces a global problem like before. Do you personally see the absence of a “big brother” in the current global fight against the pandemic?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh:It is true that the world lacks not only a “big brother”, but also a belief in a global mechanism to deal with crises. I remember that during the economic crisis of 2008 and the Ebola epidemic of 2014, the US assumed the role of global leader. But at this time of the Covid-19 pandemic, the US government seems to refuse to assume that leadership responsibility.
In my opinion, the world needs a global plan because the Covid-19 pandemic has now spread to more than 200 countries and territories. Small, individual plans are not really the solution to a problem that is cross-border, cross-national, and cross-continental like today.
Just like in wartime, in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, countries also need to imbue humanism, "humanize" the production lines of essential equipment, share medical staff, doctors, and nurses, in the spirit of "the whole leaf covers the torn leaf", "give and take", that is, richer countries with fewer infections should share material and financial resources with poorer countries with more infections.
Global cooperation is crucial on the economic front. In the context of the evolving global economy and supply chains, if each country decides its own destiny without regard for others, chaos and a deep economic recession are inevitable. We need a global plan of action, and the sooner the better.
Similarly, the suspension of all travel may have helped to contain the pandemic, but it will have unpredictable consequences for the post-Covid-19 period. Leaders should have convened urgent meetings to discuss and take joint actions from the beginning, not the late online meetings that the G7 and G20 countries have organized. The relief packages are only temporary, but trust is lost and uncertainty reigns.
Professor Pham Quang Minh and the Canadian ambassador at a cultural exchange event at the University
Journalist Phan Dang: We will no longer talk about the story of the “big brother” and the big countries, we will talk about the small people in this world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), if not cared for, many poor countries in Africa will face extreme difficulties. What do you think about this assessment?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh:I think that if the Covid-19 pandemic really spreads in Africa, it will become a super pandemic. According to Bill Gates, founder of the Africa Disease Prevention Fund, the consequences of the pandemic in Africa could be more serious than in China, possibly leading to the death of millions of people. The reason is that most African countries are underdeveloped countries. African countries cannot conduct testing and quarantine people with clinical symptoms of infection like developed, rich countries. If the epidemic breaks out, poor countries in Africa will definitely have to immediately apply centralized quarantine measures because they do not have enough facilities for testing like developed countries. Even centralized quarantine is not easy for poor countries like Africa because there is not enough food, clean drinking water and basic medical equipment for medical staff and patients. The lack of hospital beds for patients is inevitable, leading to the situation of leaving sick people wandering is extremely dangerous. Although the Covid-19 pandemic situation in Africa is not as serious as in other regions, it has spread to 46 countries on this continent, especially South Africa and Nigeria, when nearly 80 million people are locked down.
Therefore, to avoid a disaster in the black continent, developed countries, although struggling with the Covid-19 pandemic, must immediately carry out support activities for underdeveloped countries, otherwise it will be too late. Developed countries such as the G7 and G20 can consider canceling or extending bilateral debts, helping African countries feel secure and focus resources on the fight against the pandemic. They can also propose forming a common plan to help African countries such as sharing information, experience, providing minimal equipment and expert teams, opening online training courses, etc. Financial institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF can postpone debts that are due for payment, thereby helping African countries have more necessary financial resources.
Journalist Phan Dang:After all that you have witnessed, do you, a long-time international researcher, have any questions for the future of global politics?
Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh: The fight against the Covid-19 pandemic has raised many questions that are not yet answered. For example, what would you choose between privacy and health? What would happen if governments required their citizens to wear a biometric bracelet that monitors their body temperature and heart rate 24/7? What would the world be like if we only worked from home and communicated with each other via the internet, from meetings, conferences, to dating and teaching? Would we be safer? Does “out of sight makes the heart grow fonder”? And would our society still be human?
Journalist Phan Dang: Yes! Humanity will continue to ponder and find answers to these fundamental questions. And hopefully, we will soon have the most reasonable answers so that humans will not eventually be pushed into a “non-human” state as is currently feared. Thank you very much, Professor!
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3 differences of Vietnam
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According to World Security
Author:Phan Dang (performed)
