Opportunities and challenges from China's Belt and Road

China's Belt and Road Initiative. Graphics:Viet Chung.

The ancient overland Silk Road was opened during the Han Dynasty in the second century BC, while the maritime Silk Road was opened during the Ming Dynasty (1368 - 1644), creating a trade network connecting China with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Europe and Africa, Dr. Trinh Van Dinh, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, said at the international scientific conference "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Opportunities and Challenges" held in Hanoi on October 6.

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes two important routes. The “Belt” is a trade route starting from Xi’an to western China, through Central Asian countries to Europe. The “Road” is a maritime trade route that goes through the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean to Africa, through the Mediterranean before ending in Europe.

Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh (Rector of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities) pointed out that Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries and some Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand are the ones responding to the initiative because of the infrastructure this project brings. Meanwhile, Japan, India and some other ASEAN countries such as Singapore are wary of China's ambitions.

Prof. Dr. Pham Quang Minh cited that China's Belt and Road will "encircle" India's land and sea borders, posing a direct geostrategic threat to the country. As for Singapore, Thailand's Kra Isthmus Canal, part of China's initiative, will directly compete with Singapore's ports.

Discussing Australia's stance on the initiative, Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, quoted Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo as saying that "Australian businesses have many opportunities to participate in the initiative", but Mr. Ciobo also emphasized that Australia makes decisions based on national interests and will have a multi-dimensional view on this issue.

According to the professor, while it may be economically beneficial to Australia, the Belt and Road could be used by China as an economic lever to influence the country, and there is a possibility of a two-way trade imbalance.

"It is absurd to say that Australia cannot participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative and it is equally absurd to say that Australia will blindly sign any memorandum of understanding that China wants," Professor Thayer quoted Australian journalist Paul Kelly as saying.

Professor Carl Thayer speaks at the conference

Vietnam is an important country along the Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Pham Thi Thu Huyen and Master Ngo Tuan Thang, Vietnam University of Social Sciences and Humanities, said that with China's initiative, Vietnam has the opportunity to develop trade and investment, taking advantage of capital from China's infrastructure development investment fund, the Maritime Silk Road Fund and capital from other banks such as the China Import Bank and the China Development Bank. At the same time, Vietnam also has the opportunity to increase its domestic tourism potential.

However, the initiative also poses challenges for Vietnam. The Belt and Road Initiative causes internal divisions within ASEAN, adversely affecting Vietnam in resolving disputes in the East Sea. "China wants to use this cooperation framework to promote bilateral economic cooperation with each ASEAN country and draw more and more ASEAN countries into its orbit of influence."

In addition, China’s request for UNESCO to recognize the Silk Road as a heritage will be disadvantageous to Vietnam. China can use the Maritime Silk Road as a way to reaffirm its historical presence in the region, allowing it to increase its presence and push its claims in the East Sea, according to research by Dr. Pham Thi Thu Huyen and Master Ngo Tuan Thang.

"Behind the Belt and Road Initiative is a demonstration of China's soft power, not simply an initiative for connectivity and integration," the two experts assessed.