Opportunities and challenges from China's Belt and Road Initiative.

China's Belt and Road Initiative. Graphic:Viet Chung.

The ancient land Silk Road was opened during the Han Dynasty in the second century BC, while the maritime Silk Road was opened during the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), creating a trade network connecting China with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Europe, and Africa, said Dr. Trinh Van Dinh of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities at the international scientific conference "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Opportunities and Challenges" held in Hanoi on October 6th.

In an effort to revive the Silk Road, in 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), comprising two key routes. The "Belt" is a trade route starting from Xi'an to western China, passing through Central Asian countries to Europe. The "Road" is a maritime trade route traversing the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait, across the Indian Ocean to Africa, through the Mediterranean Sea before ending in Europe.

Professor Pham Quang Minh (Rector of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities) pointed out that Central Asian, Middle Eastern, and some Southeast Asian countries like Thailand are responding positively to the initiative because of the infrastructure it provides. Meanwhile, Japan, India, and some other ASEAN countries like Singapore are wary of China's ambitions.

Professor Pham Quang Minh cited that China's Belt and Road Initiative would "encircle" India's land and sea borders, posing a direct geostrategic threat to the country. As for Singapore, Thailand's Kra Isthmus Canal, part of a Chinese initiative, would directly compete with Singapore's ports.

Regarding Australia's stance on this initiative, Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, quoted Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo as saying that "Australian businesses have many opportunities to participate in the initiative," but Ciobo also stressed that Australia makes decisions based on national interests and will take a multifaceted view of the issue.

According to the professor, while potentially economically beneficial for Australia, the Belt and Road Initiative could be used by China as an economic lever to exert influence over the country, potentially leading to an imbalance in bilateral trade.

"It's absurd to say that Australia can't participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative, and equally absurd to say that Australia would blindly sign any memorandum of understanding that China wants," Professor Thayer quoted Australian journalist Paul Kelly as saying.

Professor Carl Thayer speaking at the conference.

Vietnam is a key country along the Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Pham Thi Thu Huyen and Master Ngo Tuan Thang from the Vietnam University of Social Sciences and Humanities argue that, with China's initiative, Vietnam has opportunities to develop trade and investment, leveraging capital from China's infrastructure development fund, the Maritime Silk Road fund, and other banks such as the Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank. Simultaneously, Vietnam also has the opportunity to increase its domestic tourism potential.

However, the initiative also poses challenges for Vietnam. The Belt and Road Initiative is causing internal divisions within ASEAN, negatively impacting Vietnam's ability to resolve disputes in the South China Sea. "China wants to use this cooperation framework to promote bilateral economic cooperation with individual ASEAN countries and draw more and more ASEAN countries into its sphere of influence."

Furthermore, China's request for UNESCO recognition of the Silk Road as a heritage site would be detrimental to Vietnam. China could use the maritime Silk Road as a way to reaffirm its historical presence in the region, allowing it to strengthen its presence and advance its claims in the South China Sea, according to research by Dr. Pham Thi Thu Huyen and Master Ngo Tuan Thang.

"The Belt and Road Initiative is a manifestation of China's soft power, not simply an initiative for linkage and integration," the two experts assessed.