TTLV: India-Pakistan Relations (2014-2024)

INFORMATION ABOUT THE MASTER'S THESIS

1. Student's full name: Pham Dieu Oanh 2. Gender: Female

3. Date of birth: November 18, 1998

4. Place of birth: Vinh Phuc

5. Decision No. 5626/QD-XHNV dated December 29, 2023, of the Rector of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, recognizing the student.

6. Changes in the training process: None

7. Thesis title: India-Pakistan Relations (2014-2024)

8. Major: International Relations                     Code: 8310601.01

9. Scientific Advisor: Dr. Ngo Tuan Thang – Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

10. Summary of the thesis results:

This thesis has achieved its stated objective by systematically and comprehensively analyzing the India-Pakistan bilateral relationship during the period 2014–2024. Based on an examination of the influencing factors and the current state of the relationship across three main areas, the study has identified the prominent characteristics and the enduring confrontational nature of the two countries' relationship.

In terms of politics and diplomacy, the period from 2014 to 2016 witnessed several attempts at bilateral dialogue, most notably Prime Minister Modi's surprise visit to Pakistan (2015). However, these contacts quickly broke down after terrorist attacks such as Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019), which triggered retaliatory actions by India (airstrikes on Balakot). After 2019, diplomatic relations between the two countries froze, lacking high-level dialogue and with strategic trust increasingly eroding.

Economically, bilateral trade relations remain low and disproportionate to their potential. Following India's decision on the Kashmir issue in 2019, Pakistan announced a suspension of trade with India, causing a sharp decline in bilateral trade. Tariff and non-tariff barriers, along with a lack of infrastructure connectivity and trust, have hindered the development of economic cooperation. The period from 2014 to 2024 saw no significant progress in this area.

In terms of security and military affairs, the two countries maintain a state of constant confrontation, particularly in the Line of Control (LoC) with numerous ceasefire violations. Security and defense relations are primarily deterrent, not cooperative. Both nations pursue their own military strategies: India has shifted to a "preemptive strike" doctrine, while Pakistan continues to employ asymmetrical tactics and relies on its alliance with China. More worryingly, the arms race and the risk of nuclear weapons use in the conflict zone remain present.

Overall, the research findings indicate that India-Pakistan relations during the period 2014–2024 are characterized by persistent confrontation, a lack of crisis management mechanisms, and very limited prospects for substantive dialogue.

11. Practical applications: (if any)

The research findings of this thesis can be applied as a reference and comparison when formulating Vietnam's foreign policy in the current context. In particular, the thesis offers lessons on maintaining strategic dialogue, a balanced and autonomous policy, building trust, and avoiding being drawn into great power competition. These implications are valuable for Vietnam's policy planning in its relations with South Asian countries, as well as in managing complex bilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

12. Future research directions: (if any)

- Research the role of regional organizations (SAARC, SCO) and multilateral mechanisms in mediating the India-Pakistan conflict.

An in-depth analysis of the impact of nuclear deterrence doctrine on the security structure of the South Asian region.

- Comparing India's foreign policy under different periods to identify long-term strategic shifts.

- Expand the analysis to include social, media, and public opinion factors in shaping foreign policy between the two countries.

13. Published works related to the thesis: None

INFORMATION ON MASTER'S THESIS

1. Full name: Pham Dieu Oanh 2. Sex: Female

3. Date of birth: November 18, 1998 4. Place of birth: Vinh Phuc Province

5. Admission decision number: 5626/QD-XHNV Dated: December 29, 2023

6. Changes in academic process: No

7. Official thesis title: India–Pakistan Relations (2014–2024)

8. Major: International Relations 9. Code:8310601.01

10. Supervisors: Dr. Ngo Tuan Thang – University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

11. Summary of the findings of the thesis:

The thesis has successfully fulfilled its objective of scientifically and comprehensively analyzed the bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan during the period 2014–2024. Based on a thorough assessment of the factors and actual developments across three key areas, the study identifies the prominent characteristics and enduring adversarial nature of the relationship between the two countries.

In terms of politics and diplomacy, the 2014–2016 period witnessed certain bilateral engagement efforts, notably Prime Minister Modi's unexpected visit to Pakistan in 2015. However, diplomat contacts quickly collapsed following terrorist incidents such as Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019), leading to retaliatory actions by India, including the Balakot airstrikes. Since 2019, bilateral diplomacy has effectively frozen, marked by the absence of high-level dialogue and increasingly eroded strategic trust.

In the economic domain, bilateral trade remains modest and fell short of potential. Following India's decision regarding Kashmir in 2019, Pakistan suspended trade with India, resulting in a sharp decline in trade volume. Tariff and non-tariff barriers, insufficient infrastructure, and a lack of trust hindered economic cooperation. The 2014–2024 period saw no significant progress in this area.

Regarding security and military affairs, the two countries maintain a continuous state of confrontation, especially along the Line of Control (LoC), with numerous ceasefire violations. Bilateral defense relations were dominant deterrence-based and non-cooperative. India adopted a more proactive military doctrine ("preemptive strikes"), while Pakistan pursued asymmetric strategies and deepened its strategic partnership with China. Alarmingly, both countries engaged in arms races, and the risk of nuclear escalation in disputed zones remains present.

Overall, the study concludes that India–Pakistan relations during 2014–2024 are characterized by fixed antagonism, a lack of effective crisis management mechanisms, and limited prospects for substantive dialogue.

12. Practical applicability, if any:

The thesis findings can serve as a reference for lingering in formulating Vietnam's foreign policy in the current geopolitical context. In particular, the study offers valuable lessons on maintaining strategic dialogue, pursuing balanced and independent diplomacy, fostering mutual trust, and avoiding entrapment in great power competition. These implications are especially relevant for Vietnam's engagement with South Asian countries and in managing complex bilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

13. Further research directions, if any:

- Examine the role of regional organizations (eg, SAARC, SCO) and multilateral mechanisms in mediating the India–Pakistan conflict.

- Analyze the strategic implications of nuclear deterrence doctrines on the security architecture of South Asia.

- Conduct comparative studies on India's foreign policy across different leadership periods to identify long-term strategic shifts.

- Expand research on the influence of societal factors, political communication, and public opinion in shaping foreign policy decisions between the two nations.

14. Thesis-related publications: No