TTLV: India - Pakistan Relations (2014-2024)

MASTER'S THESIS INFORMATION

1. Student's full name: Pham Dieu Oanh 2. Gender: Female

3. Date of birth: November 18, 1998

4. Place of birth: Vinh Phuc

5. Decision on recognition of students No. 5626/QD-XHNV dated December 29, 2023 of the President of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

6. Changes in training process: No

7. Thesis topic: India - Pakistan Relations (2014-2024)

8. Major: International Relations                     Code: 8310601.01

9. Scientific advisor: Dr. Ngo Tuan Thang - University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

10. Summary of thesis results:

The thesis has fulfilled its objectives by systematically and comprehensively analyzing the India-Pakistan bilateral relationship in the period 2014-2024. Based on the survey of influencing factors and the current state of development of the relationship in three main areas, the study has drawn out the outstanding features and the nature of sustainable confrontation in the relationship between the two countries.

In terms of politics and diplomacy, the 2014–2016 period witnessed some attempts at bilateral dialogue, notably Prime Minister Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan (2015). However, contacts quickly collapsed after terrorist attacks such as Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019), which led to India’s retaliation (Balakot airstrike). After 2019, diplomatic relations between the two countries fell into a frozen state, lacking high-level dialogue and strategic trust increasingly eroding.

Economically, bilateral trade relations are low and do not match their potential. Following India’s decision on the Kashmir issue in 2019, Pakistan announced a trade suspension with India, causing two-way trade to plummet. Tariff and non-tariff barriers and a lack of infrastructure connectivity and trust have hindered economic cooperation from developing. The 2014–2024 period did not record any significant progress in this area.

In terms of security and military, the two countries maintain a constant state of confrontation, especially in the LoC area with many ceasefire violations. Security and defense relations are mainly deterrent, not cooperative. Both countries pursue their own military strategies: India has shifted to a "preemptive counterattack" doctrine, while Pakistan continues to use asymmetric tactics and rely on its alliance with China. More worryingly, the arms race and the risk of using nuclear weapons in conflict zones still exist.

Overall, the research results show that India-Pakistan relations in the 2014–2024 period are characterized by fixed confrontation, lack of crisis control mechanisms, while the prospects for substantive dialogue remain very limited.

11. Practical application: (if any)

The research results of the thesis can be applied in reference and comparison when building Vietnam's foreign policy in the current context. In particular, the thesis provides lessons on maintaining strategic dialogue, balanced and autonomous policies, building trust, and not being drawn into great power competition. These implications are valuable for Vietnam's policy making in relations with South Asian countries, as well as in handling complex bilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

12. Further research directions: (if any)

- Study the role of regional organizations (SAARC, SCO) and multilateral mechanisms in mediating the India-Pakistan conflict.

In-depth analysis of the impact of nuclear deterrence doctrine on the security structure of the South Asian region.

- Compare India's foreign policy under different periods to identify long-term strategic transformation trends.

- Expand the analysis of social, media and public opinion factors in the formation of foreign policy between the two countries.

13. Published works related to the thesis: None

INFORMATION ON MASTER'S THESIS

1. Full name: Pham Dieu Oanh 2. Sex: Female

3. Date of birth: November 18, 1998 4. Place of birth: Vinh Phuc Province

5. Admission decision number: 5626/QD-XHNV Dated: December 29, 2023

6. Changes in academic process: No

7. Official thesis title: India–Pakistan Relations (2014–2024)

8. Major: International Relations 9. Code:8310601.01

10. Supervisors: Dr. Ngo Tuan Thang – University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

11. Summary of the findings of the thesis:

The thesis has successfully fulfilled its objective of scientifically and comprehensively analyzed the bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan during the period 2014–2024. Based on a thorough assessment of the factors and actual developments across three key areas, the study identifies the prominent characteristics and enduring adversarial nature of the relationship between the two countries.

In terms of politics and diplomacy, the 2014–2016 period witnessed certain bilateral engagement efforts, notably Prime Minister Modi's unexpected visit to Pakistan in 2015. However, diplomat contacts quickly collapsed following terrorist incidents such as Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019), leading to retaliatory actions by India, including the Balakot airstrikes. Since 2019, bilateral diplomacy has effectively frozen, marked by the absence of high-level dialogue and increasingly eroded strategic trust.

In the economic domain, bilateral trade remains modest and fell short of potential. Following India's decision regarding Kashmir in 2019, Pakistan suspended trade with India, resulting in a sharp decline in trade volume. Tariff and non-tariff barriers, insufficient infrastructure, and a lack of trust hindered economic cooperation. The 2014–2024 period saw no significant progress in this area.

Regarding security and military affairs, the two countries maintain a continuous state of confrontation, especially along the Line of Control (LoC), with numerous ceasefire violations. Bilateral defense relations were dominant deterrence-based and non-cooperative. India adopted a more proactive military doctrine ("preemptive strikes"), while Pakistan pursued asymmetric strategies and deepened its strategic partnership with China. Alarmingly, both countries engaged in arms races, and the risk of nuclear escalation in disputed zones remains present.

Overall, the study concludes that India–Pakistan relations during 2014–2024 are characterized by fixed antagonism, a lack of effective crisis management mechanisms, and limited prospects for substantive dialogue.

12. Practical applicability, if any:

The thesis findings can serve as a reference for lingering in formulating Vietnam's foreign policy in the current geopolitical context. In particular, the study offers valuable lessons on maintaining strategic dialogue, pursuing balanced and independent diplomacy, fostering mutual trust, and avoiding entrapment in great power competition. These implications are especially relevant for Vietnam's engagement with South Asian countries and in managing complex bilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

13. Further research directions, if any:

- Examine the role of regional organizations (eg, SAARC, SCO) and multilateral mechanisms in mediating the India–Pakistan conflict.

- Analyze the strategic implications of nuclear deterrence doctrines on the security architecture of South Asia.

- Conduct comparative studies on India's foreign policy across different leadership periods to identify long-term strategic shifts.

- Expand research on the influence of societal factors, political communication, and public opinion in shaping foreign policy decisions between the two nations.

14. Thesis-related publications: No