TTLV: Thailand - China defense relations (2014-2023)

MASTER'S THESIS INFORMATION

1. Student's full name:Nguyen The Nguyen2. Gender: Male

3. Date of birth: February 26, 1983

4. Place of birth: Ha Mo commune, Dan Phuong district, Hanoi city

5. Decision on recognition of students No. 5626/QD-XHNV; December 29, 2023 of the President of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

6. Changes in training process: No

7. Thesis topic: Thailand - China defense relations (2014-2023)

8. Major: International Relations; Code: 8310601.01

9. Scientific advisor: Dr. Vu Thi Anh Thu, Faculty of International Studies, University of Social Sciences and Humanities

10. Summary of thesis results:

On May 22, 2014, a group of Royal Thai Army generals led by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha carried out a coup to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and took power until 2023. During the 2014-2023 period, Thailand maintained its alliance with the United States but at the same time tightened its defense relations with China to modernize its military, seek support for the legitimacy of the military government and limit the risk of possible isolation in the international arena. The 2014-2023 period witnessed strong development of Thailand-China defense relations in three main areas: exchanging military delegations, organizing joint exercises and purchasing weapons and equipment. In particular, the two sides maintained regular exchanges of military delegations at all levels, expanded joint exercises and increased the purchase and sale of modern weapons and equipment, typically the Yuan-class S26T submarine. During this period, the Thai-Chinese defense relationship emerged with three main characteristics: (1) Although the two countries have differences in political institutions, development paths, military doctrines and military size, the defense relationship between the two countries has developed steadily. (2) Thailand has shown initiative in defense relations with China. China is willing to promote defense cooperation without paying attention to domestic political turmoil in Thailand. (3) Although strengthening defense relations with China, Thailand is determined not to distance itself from the US. The development of Thai-Chinese defense relations has caused many impacts on the region and Vietnam, such as creating challenges to ASEAN's internal solidarity, increasing the arms race in the region and complicating the handling of the East Sea issue. Based on the assessment of the regional and global situation, the trend of defense cooperation between the two countries, the need to modernize Thailand's military and other factors, as well as using tools such as analysis of the current situation, leaders' speeches, and consultation with experts, three scenarios of trends in Thailand-China defense relations are proposed: (1) Scenario 1: Thailand-China defense relations continue to expand (highly likely). (2) Scenario 2: Thailand-China defense relations maintain a level of cooperation but no breakthrough (medium likelihood). (3) Scenario 3: Thailand-China defense relations decline due to political or economic factors (low likelihood).

11. Practical applicability: Providing updated and systematic sources of documents on the Thailand-China defense cooperation process. As a reference document in building Vietnam's defense policy and foreign affairs. Used in teaching at military academies and schools.

12. Further research directions: Expanding research on Thailand-China defense-security relations. Updating new developments and trends after 2023, in conjunction with changes in the world and regional situation.

13. Published works related to the thesis: None

INFORMATION ON MASTER'S THESIS

1. Full name:Nguyen The Nguyen2. Sex: Male

3. Date of birth: February 26, 1983 4. Place of birth: Ha Mo Village, Dan Phuong District, Hanoi City

5. Admission decision number: 3310/QD-XHNV Dated July 2, 2024

6. Changes in academic process: No

7. Official thesis title: Thailand – China Defense Relations (2014-2023)

8. Major: International Relations 9. Code:8310601.01

10. Supervisors: Dr. Vu Thi Anh Thu, Faculty of International Studies, University of Social Sciences and Humanities

11. Summary of the findings of the thesis:

On May 22, 2014, a group of Royal Thai Army generals, led by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha, staged a coup that overthrew the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and took control of the country's administration until 2023. During the 2014-2023 period, Thailand maintained its alliance with the United States while simultaneously strengthening its defense relations with China. This dual-track approach aims to modernize its military, seek support for the legitimacy of the military-led government, and avoid the risk of international isolation. This period witnessed significant growth in Thailand-China defense relations, particularly in three key areas: military delegation exchanges, joint military exercises, and arms sales. The two sides continuously maintain regular exchanges of military delegations at various levels, expanded joint drills, and increased the purchase of modern military equipment, such as the S26T Yuan-class submarine. Three main characteristics of Thailand-China defense relations during this period can be identified: (1) Despite differences in political systems, development paths, military doctrines, and military scale, defense ties between the two countries developed in a stable and consistent manner. (2) Thailand demonstrates a proactive role in its defense engagement with China. At the same time, China showed willingness to enhance cooperation regardless of Thailand's internal political instability. (3) While deepening defense relations with China, Thailand remains firmly aligned with the United States, refraining from distancing itself from its traditional ally. The evolving defense relationship between Thailand and China had several regional implications, including challenges to ASEAN unity, an intensification arms race in the region, and further complications in addressing the South China Sea issue. Based on an assessment of regional and global dynamics, the trajectory of bilateral defense cooperation, Thailand's military modernization needs, and other contributing factors - as well as using analytical tools such as current state analysis, leadership discourse, and expert consultations - the thesis proposes three potential scenarios for the future of Thailand-China defense relations: (1) Scenario 1: Defense ties between Thailand and China continue to expand (high probability). (2) Scenario 2: Defense relations maintain the current level of cooperation without major breakthroughs (moderate probability). (3) Scenario 3: Defense cooperation declines due to political or economic factors (low probability).

12. Practical applicability, if any: Provide updated and systematic sources on the progress of defense cooperation between Thailand and China. Use as reference materials in the formulation of Vietnam's defense policy and foreign relations. Applicable in teaching at military academies and institutions.

13. Further research directions, if any: Expand the study of Thailand-China defense and security relations. Update on developments and new trends since 2023, linked to changes in the global and regional context

14. Thesis-related publications: No