TTLV: China-Philippines Relations 2010-2019

1. Student's full name: Nguyen Thanh Trung. 2. Gender: Male.

3. Date of birth: March 25, 1983.

4. Place of birth: Tay Mo, Tu Liem, Hanoi.

5. Decision No. 1765/2018/QD-XHNV dated June 28, 2018, of the Rector of the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, recognizing postgraduate students.

6. Changes in the training process: None.

7. Thesis title: China-Philippines Relations 2010-2019.

8. Major: International Relations; Code:8310601.01

9. Scientific supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Viet Thai, Institute for Strategic Diplomatic Studies, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.

10. Summary of the thesis results:

The thesis has clarified the main factors affecting China-Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019, including: the global and regional situation; bilateral relations before 2010; the internal situations of China and the Philippines (these are the main decisive factors), especially the adjustment of foreign policy by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte compared to the previous administration of President Benigno Aquino III. In particular, President Rodrigo Duterte's administration implemented an independent and self-reliant foreign policy, balancing the interests of major powers, making firm statements in relations with the US; and improving relations and continuously strengthening cooperation with China in many fields.

This thesis contributes to clarifying the contrasting ups and downs of China-Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019. From a tense political relationship primarily due to the South China Sea issue under President Benigno Aquino III, political relations between the two countries have seen significant development under President Rodrigo Duterte. With a policy of closer ties to China, President Duterte's administration has promoted cooperation with China in many areas (politics, foreign affairs, economics, defense and security, etc.). In the first nearly four years of President Rodrigo Duterte's rule, despite facing the biggest challenge – the tension over Thitu Island – China-Philippines relations have shown significant progress compared to the Benigno Aquino III era, with the two countries' relationship being elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in November 2018.

The thesis also provides an assessment of the impact of China-Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019 on Southeast Asia and Vietnam, particularly in resolving disputes in the South China Sea and attracting increased involvement of major powers in the region. It also forecasts the prospects for bilateral relations until 2024 and offers recommendations for Vietnam in its relations with China and the Philippines. The thesis predicts that China-Philippines relations will not reverse or undergo significant changes by 2024. The two countries will continue to consolidate and strengthen cooperation in all fields, but a major breakthrough in joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea is unlikely.

11. Practical applications: Vietnamese Party and State agencies, research institutions, and universities can refer to the content of this thesis to gain a further perspective on China-Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019 and some of their impacts on Southeast Asia and Vietnam.

12. Future research directions: Continue to conduct in-depth research on China-Philippines relations in the coming period and propose Vietnam's countermeasures in relations with China and the Philippines, including resolving sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.

13. Published works related to the thesis: None.

INFORMATION ON MASTER'S THESIS

1. Full name: Nguyen Thanh Trung 2. Sex: Male

3. Date of birth: March 25, 1983 4. Place of birth: Tu Liem, Hanoi

5. Admission decision number: 1765 Dated: June 28, 2018

6. Changes in academic process: No.

7. Official thesis title: China - Philippines relations between 2010 - 2019

8. Major: International relationships 9. Code:8310601.01

10. Supervisors: Associate Professor Ph.D Tran Viet Thai, Institute of Foreign Strategic Studies, Vietnam Diplomatic Academy.

11. Summary of the findings of the thesis:

The thesis has clarified the main factors affecting China - Philippines relations for the period of 2010 - 2019, including: World and regional situation; bilateral relations before 2010; the internal situation of China and the Philippines (which are key determinants), especially the foreign policy adjustments of the President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte compared to the previous Administration of President Benigno Aquino III. In particular, the Government of President Rodrigo Duterte has implemented an independent, autonomous foreign policy which seeks to balance interests among major countries; made tough statements in relations with the US; improved relations and constantly strengthened cooperation with China in many areas.

The thesis has contributed to clarify the controversial ups and downs of China - Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019. From the tense political relationship mainly due to the South China Sea issue under President Benigno Aquino III, political relations between the two countries have significantly developed under President Rodrigo Duterte. Adopting a closer policy toward China, President Rodrigo Duterte's government promotes cooperation with China in many fields (politics, foreign affairs, economy, defense - security...). In the first four years of President Rodrigo Duterte's rule in the Philippines, China - Philippines relations, despite the greatest challenge, was tense of the Thi Tu Island issue, marked a significant development compared to the period under the President Benigno Aquino III when bilateral relations were raised to the level of Comprehensive strategic cooperation in November 2018.

The thesis also gave some assessments on the impact of China - Philippines relations from 2010 to 2019 towards Southeast Asia and Vietnam, especially in resolving disputes in the South China Sea and attracting increased involvement of major countries in this region; at the same time forecasted the prospects of bilateral relations until 2024 and made recommendations for Vietnam in dealing with China and the Philippines. The thesis predicts that China - Philippines relations until 2024 will not be reversed and there will not be big fluctuations. The two countries are expected to consolidate and strengthen cooperation in many areas, but it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the implementation of joint oil and gas cooperation in the South China Sea.

12. Practical applicability: The Party, the State, the research agencies, the universities of Vietnam can refer to the content of the thesis to have another perspective on the China - Philippines relations for the period of 2010 - 2019 and impacts on Southeast Asia and Vietnam.

13. Further research directions: Continue to deepen study China - Philippines relations in the coming time and make recommenlation on Vietnam's policy in relations with China and the Philippines, including resolving sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.

14. Thesis-related publications: No.